PMC Donation Information
Uncategorized
Aug 14, 2014
I am now also emailing my posts directly to my PMC donors at the same time they are emailed for posting on this website. If you wish to be on the list, please make a donation here.
...Read More
China, Corporate debt and profits, Bank credit, Japan, Leveraged loans
Economic Releases
Dec 10, 2018
China exports falling with tariffs: China’s November export, import growth shrinks, showing weak demand US exports turning south as well? The deceleration that started with the collapse of oil capex in Dec 2014 took a brief zig up late in 2017, and subsequently continued lower: Likewise the ability to generate gross profits
...Read More
Fed comments, Trump watching stocks
Economic Releases
Dec 07, 2018
A falling stock market will get the Fed’s attention and trigger real economic weakness and aggressive rate cuts. But those rate cuts remove interest income from the macro economy, which doesn’t recover until after net deficit spending (public or private) gets high enough to support aggregate demand growth. And the last recession
...Read More
Employment, NYSE margin debt
Economic Releases
Dec 07, 2018
Employment growth had been decelerating with the collapse in oil capex in Dec. 2014, but had started to accelerate with the initial impact of the year-end tax cuts, which now look to be fading: Highlights Sustainable non-inflationary strength is the indication from the November employment report as payroll growth proved favorable and
...Read More
Trade, Factory orders, Vehicle sales, UK service sector, German PMI
Economic Releases
Dec 06, 2018
Deficit growing despite tariffs. Could be J curve effect: Highlights A slight 0.1 percent decline in exports and a slight 0.2 percent gain in imports made for a sizable 1.7 percent deepening in the nation’s trade deficit in October to $55.5 billion which is just outside Econoday’s consensus range. The deficit with
...Read More
Tariffs, Congress
Economic Releases
Dec 04, 2018
Imports are real benefits, exports real costs. Seems everyone of consequence has it backwards? A collapse in global trade can make 2008 look tame:
...Read More
Construction spending, Smart phones
Economic Releases
Dec 03, 2018
Looking very weak: Highlights Construction has been a soft spot of the economy evident once again in October where spending fell 0.1 percent for the third straight decline and the fourth decline in five months. Spending on new single-family homes in October fell 0.5 percent with home-improvement spending down 0.9 percent, both
...Read More
Personal income and spending, Pending home sales
Economic Releases
Nov 30, 2018
No drama here: More housing weakness news: Highlights This has not been a good run for housing data. Pending home sales fell a very steep 2.6 percent in October which is far below Econoday’s consensus range. Existing home sales did end a long downturn in last week’s report but today’s results point
...Read More
Trade, New home sales, Federal interest payments
Economic Releases
Nov 30, 2018
Trade deficit still increasing: Highlights The goods portion of October’s trade deficit is deeper than expected, at $77.2 billion vs expectations for $76.9 billion and compared with a monthly average in the third-quarter of $74.6 billion. October’s data opens fourth-quarter net exports on a negative note following the third quarter when trade
...Read More
Home sales, Durable goods, Philly Fed index
Economic Releases
Nov 23, 2018
Last month revised lower and looking weak: Highlights A drop for primary metals, a sharp drop for machinery, and a reversal for defense aircraft all pulled down durable goods orders in October which fell a sharper-than-expected 4.4 percent. A very sharp downward revision to September, revised from a 0.8 percent gain to
...Read More
Housing starts
Economic Releases
Nov 21, 2018
Not good: Highlights Yesterday’s housing market index may have unexpectedly plummeted but today’s housing starts and permits report, though soft, at least is in the ballpark of expectations. Starts in October rose 1.5 percent to a 1.228 million annualized rate that compares with Econoday’s consensus for 1.240 million. Permits edged past expectations,
...Read More