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I am now also emailing my posts directly to my PMC donors at the same time they are emailed for posting on this website. If you wish to be on the list, please make a donation here. ...Read More

New home sales, Housing prices, Richmond Fed, Consumer confidence

Back down from already depressed levels even as mortgage rates fall: US New Home Sales Fall Unexpectedly Sales of new single-family houses in the US dropped 7.8% from the previous month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 626 thousand in May, compared to market expectations of a 1.9% increase, as purchases ...Read More

Chicago Fed, Dallas Fed, Germany IFO

Global deceleration continues: ...Read More

Electronics sales, Fed indicator, Bank lending, Power generation

Tariffs: Bank lending deceleration: Real estate has gone nowhere: Gone flat this entire cycle: ...Read More

Philidepia Fed, Freight, Architecture index, Housing starts

Last month’s uptick hinted at a reversal, but this month’s large move back down says otherwise: Still rolling over, and from depressed levels relative to prior cycles, and these charts are not population adjusted which only makes it worse: ...Read More

NT Manufacturing, Home builder index, Earnings

Last months spike up that was hailed as a turn around now looks like an aberration: NY Manufacturing Falls The Most on Record The New York Empire State Manufacturing Index plummeted 26.4 points from the previous month to -8.6 in June, missing market expectations of +10. That was the largest monthly decline ...Read More

Retail sales, US Industrial Production, China Industrial Production, Morgan Stanley business conditions index

Not adjusted for inflation: Adjusted for inflation: Still looking down: Remember when last month’s spike higher was presumed to be the start of a turn around? . A Morgan Stanley economic indicator just suffered a record collapse ...Read More

Fed recession models, Trade, Euro area industrial production

Imports and exports both decelerating: Still in contraction: ...Read More

Small business optimism, JOLTS, Rail chart, Commercial real estate, Tariffs

Trump says ‘devalued’ currencies put US at a disadvantage and the Fed doesn’t have a ‘clue’ President Donald Trump said Tuesday the U.S. dollar is at a disadvantage compared to other major currencies like the euro as other central banks keep interest rates low while the Federal Reserve’s rates are higher by ...Read More

Employment, German industrial production

Now even the lagging indicators are pointing south. And lower rates from the Fed will only make it a bit worse by cutting gov. interest payments to the economy: Highlights Move up the rate-cut plans is the theme of the May employment report which shows declining growth in the labor market and ...Read More

Manufacturing jobs, Trade, Jobless claims, Tariff news

As previously discussed, unemployment benefits have become much harder to get than in prior cycles, which means they will go up that much less as employment slows, and also that they won’t function as an automatic fiscal stabilizer to the extent they did in prior cycles, which will work to delay a ...Read More