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Aug 14, 2014
I am now also emailing my posts directly to my PMC donors at the same time they are emailed for posting on this website. If you wish to be on the list, please make a donation here.
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Housing starts, Unemployment claims, China
Economic Releases
Apr 19, 2019
Still heading south: In addition to tightening requirements, states have found other means to keep people from receiving benefits: Has the economy made it arder to get unemployment benefits? Not every terminated employee is eligible to receive unemployment benefits. You have to earn a minimum amount to even qualify; you cannot quit
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Euro area PMI, Architecture billings index, Philly Fed, Retail sales, Inventories, Fed report, Equity prices and earnings forecasts
Economic Releases
Apr 18, 2019
Not looking good: German Factory Activity Continues to Contract in April The IHS Markit Germany Manufacturing PMI rose to 44.5 in April 2019 from the previous month’s near seven-year low of 44.1, but below market expectations of 45, a preliminary estimate showed. Still, the latest reading pointed to a sharp contraction in
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Trade, Housing affordability, China, BOJ equity buying, Retail comment
Economic Releases
Apr 17, 2019
Imports and exports both decelerating indicates a weaker global economy, and weak US retail sales indicates domestic consumer spending growth is slowing: Highlights First-quarter GDP looks to get a major boost from improvement in the nation’s trade deficit which, for February, came in at much lower-than-expected $49.4 billion. And the positives are
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Housing index, Industrial production, Euro export growth
Economic Releases
Apr 16, 2019
Still looks to be weakening: Looking weak: Tariff wars taking their toll:
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Housing, Freight, Infrastructure, Trump advice, MMT hysteria, Cooling real estate markets
Economic Releases
Apr 15, 2019
Tax Reform Exacerbates Sales Cooldown in the U.S. (WSJ) U.S. tax reform has exacerbated a gradual cooldown in U.S. home sales over the past year in certain parts of the country, according to research from realtor.com. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which went into effect on Jan. 1, 2018, allows homeowners
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Automatic cuts, China vehicle sales, Greenspan on wealth effect
Economic Releases
Apr 12, 2019
Trump may allow $125B in cuts if Congress doesn’t act (The Hill) President Trump has indicated that he would allow $125 billion in spending cuts to take place if Congress does not agree to his spending plan, White House adviser Larry Kudlow said Thursday. Kudlow was referring to budget caps set in
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Freight, Pensions, ECB, Germany
Economic Releases
Apr 11, 2019
Truckers Cut Payrolls As Freight Demand Softens Funding pensions reduces aggregate demand: The Long Bull Market Has Failed to Fix Public Pensions Long term loans to banks do nothing for the macro economy and negative interest rates are a tax: Mario Draghi signaled that the European Central Bank expects to rely on
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Buy backs, Inflation, Credit applications, Philly Fed
Economic Releases
Apr 10, 2019
So the question is regarding dividends vs stock buy backs- do stock buy backs cause stocks to be over valued or do dividends cause them to be undervalued? ;) A Surprising Connection Between the Bull Market and Stock Buybacks (WSJ) A study published last year in the Financial Analysts Journal, “Net Buybacks
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Auto sales, Lumber, Rail loadings, Global survey, Profits comments, Las Vegas Real Estate, Central Banks buying gold
Economic Releases
Apr 08, 2019
This has been know to be associated with the housing cycle: Framing Lumber Prices Down 30% Year-over-year This has taken a dive recently: Global economy enters ‘synchronised slowdown’ (F) The global economy has entered a “synchronised slowdown” which may be difficult to reverse in 2019, according to the latest update of a
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Employment, Durable goods, Trucking, Rail traffic, Draghi on rates, Dollar status
Economic Releases
Apr 06, 2019
Looks like there was a drop in employment growth by firms with under 50 employees: ‘Last hire first fired’ has made this a leading indicator in prior cycles: Heavy-Duty Truck Orders Hit the Brakes in March Trucking companies slammed the brakes on orders for heavy-duty trucks in March, signaling caution amid long
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