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I am now also emailing my posts directly to my PMC donors at the same time they are emailed for posting on this website. If you wish to be on the list, please make a donation here. ...Read More

NY manufacturing, China retail sales, US car sales

Up this month but trending lower: China has been trying to recover with fiscal adjustments: Doesn’t include pickups and other light trucks: ...Read More

Manhattan home prices, Capital goods imports, Rails, Euro area industrial production, China imports

Still in contraction: China Imports Tumble in June Imports to China plunged 7.3 percent from a year earlier to USD 161.86 billion in June 2019, much worse than forecasts of a 4.5 percent drop, a further sign of weak domestic demand that could lead Beijing to add more stimulus. Purchases fell for: ...Read More

JOLTS, Manufacturing, rails, Recreational spending

All seems to be rolling over: This source of growth may be decelerating as well? ...Read More

Employment, China, Trump speech

The annual rate of change continues to take a dive: Highlights There’s still time to cancel your rate-cut party. Nonfarm payrolls shot 224,000 higher in June and well beyond Econoday’s consensus range where the high forecast was 205,000. There are no flukes in this report underscored by a 17,000 jump for what ...Read More

Small business indicators, China business survey, Car sales, FDI, Euro retail sales

Light vehicle sales peaked a while back: Been helping to support the $US: Eurozone Retail Sales Fall Unexpectedly Retail trade in the Euro Area fell 0.3% in May, following a 0.1% drop in April and missing expectations of a 0.3% growth, as sales declined for all main categories. Among the bloc’s largest ...Read More

Payrolls, Durable goods, ISM services, CEO confidence, Fed comment, Trump comment on currencies

Another indicator turning south, and this is a big one, as it’s the source of most consumer income: Familiar pattern? As if rate cuts would help output, employment, or earnings, all of which are decelerating: Dow rises 100 points and heads for record close amid expectations for the Fed to lower rates ...Read More

Construction, Bank loans, Earnings

Been working its way lower and into contraction ever since the collapse in oil capital expenditures late in 2015, like a slow motion train wreck: There’s been a history of getting a spike up before the collapse: Companies are warning that earnings results are going to be brutal KEY POINTS With earnings ...Read More

China, UK, US, Euro zone

Global collapse continues, though you’d never know it watching the stock market: China Inflation Rate Slows to 6-Month Low The official Non-Manufacturing PMI in China unexpectedly inched lower to 54.2 in June, the lowest in six months, from 54.3 in the previous month and missing market consensus of China Factory Activity Shrinks ...Read More

Rail traffic, Business confidence, UK imports, Trade news

Deep in contraction: Looks to be below 2008 levels: So looks like the current tariffs remain. As previously suggested, the US President is narrowly focused on the money he’s collecting, as the tariffs remove $US net financial assets from the global economy and discourages transactions with the US. That is, it all ...Read More

Reposting a prior comment

Here’s a comment I wrote and posted several years ago. I’d like to add that I also see the Transition Job policy, along with a 0 rate policy, as what I call the ‘base case for analysis’ of a state currency: “With ‘state currency’ There necessarily is, Always has been, Always will ...Read More