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I am now also emailing my posts directly to my PMC donors at the same time they are emailed for posting on this website. If you wish to be on the list, please make a donation here. ...Read More

Inventory/sales ratio, PMI’s, Housing starts, Consumer Sentiment

Still elevated: Not looking good: Starts down and rolling over, permits up for the month but still trending lower, as per the charts: Highlights A slow turn upward is the indication from a mixed but still positive housing starts and permits report for July, headlined by a much lower-than-expected rate for starts ...Read More

Industrial production, Retail sales, Housing index, NY manufacturing, Trump comments

Tariffs doing their thing to the US economy: Highlights A jump in utility output couldn’t save industrial production in July which, pressured by contraction in both manufacturing and also mining, came in near the low end of Econoday’s consensus range with a 0.2 percent decline. Utilities, where production is affected by the ...Read More

Germany, Euro IP, China

German Economy Contracts in Q2 as Exports Fall Germany’s gross domestic product contracted by a seasonally-adjusted 0.1 percent on quarter in the three months to June 2019, following a 0.4 percent expansion in the previous period and matching market expectations, a preliminary estimate showed. Net external demand contributed negatively to the GDP, ...Read More

Tariff delay, Foreign US home buyers, Euro area ZEW

You can’t make this stuff up… So the problem is Americans might not buy Chinese products? Trump says he delayed tariffs because of concerns over Christmas shopping season ...Read More

China news, CNBC small business survey

China Vehicle Sales Fall for 13th Month Vehicles sales in China decreased 4.3 percent from a year earlier in July 2019, the 13th consecutive month of decline, as the economy slows further amid the trade spat with the US. Sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) tumbled 4.7 percent to 80,000 units, the ...Read More

Auto sales, Auto cutbacks, Central bank gold buying

Peaked a few years ago and trending lower: BEA: July Vehicles Sales decreased to 16.8 Million SAAR The BEA released their estimate of July vehicle sales on Tuesday. The BEA estimated sales of 16.82 million SAAR in July 2019 (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), down 1.8% from the June sales rate, and down ...Read More

Air freight, Rails, Oil and Gas, Morgan Stanley index, Semi sales

Rail Week Ending 03 August 2019: July Down 6.1% Oil related capex never recovered to prior levels and is now in decline: Down some more: ...Read More

Bankruptcy cuts, Wholesale trade, Turkey

Bankruptcy-related job losses invoke grim reminders of Great Recession In the first seven months of the year, U.S.-based companies announced 42,937 job cuts due to bankruptcy, up 40% from the same period last year and nearly 20% higher than all bankruptcy-related job losses last year, a report released Tuesday concluded. Despite record-low ...Read More

Germany, Argentina, Rate cuts

Deep into global industrial contraction: Not that rate cuts are expansionary, of course, but that they think they are. As the barber quipped, ‘no matter how much I cut off, it’s still too short’ : Central Banks Across Asia Cut Interest Rates The Reserve Bank of India cut its benchmark repo rate ...Read More

JOLTS, Exports, Lumber prices, Trump comments

Openings have rolled over and hires gone flat. Neither are population adjusted so it’s worse than it looks here: New export orders now below 2016 collapse: All these statements are entirely false, of course, but interesting how the ’45 year’ statement repeats- seems somehow he’s ‘connecting’ it to him being the 45th ...Read More