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I am now also emailing my posts directly to my PMC donors at the same time they are emailed for posting on this website. If you wish to be on the list, please make a donation here. ...Read More

Surveys, Housing 55+ and investment, FT mention

Trade issues taking their toll: This too has gone flat: Nice mentions for Stephanie and a also bit for me here, as MMT is now on a roll: ...Read More

Budget, Asian airfreight, US profit forecast, Growth index, Capex, Share buybacks

December 2018 CBO Monthly Budget Review: Total Receipts Up by 1% And Spending Up 9% in the First Quarter of Fiscal Year 2019 The federal budget deficit was $317 billion for the first quarter of fiscal year 2019, CBO estimates, $92 billion more than the deficit recorded during the same period last ...Read More

Employment, Euro pmi, Chile retail sales, Goldman index. Leveraged loans, Bank credit

Agent Orange, the self proclaimed tariff man, taking the EU: US decelerating: I would have expected Chile to be affected most by global warming… It’s becoming more clear to me that lending shifted from banks to other investment entities via the leveraged loan process, and the growth in that credit channel is ...Read More

Profits, Bank lending, Factory activity, Mtg apps, Auto sales

Corporate Profit Crunch Looms as Stocks Slide (WSJ) In December, analysts cut their earnings forecasts for 2019 on more than half the companies in the S&P 500, according to FactSet, the first time that had happened in two years. They expect earnings for S&P 500 companies to grow 7.8% in 2019, down ...Read More

Dallas Fed survey, California home sales, Tariff exemptions

Not good: California Home Sales Slowest For An October In Seven Years (Econintersect) California home sales fell year over year for the third consecutive month, hitting a seven-year low for an October, as affordability constraints and a more cautious stance by many would-be buyers continued to weigh on the market. Interesting. Wonder ...Read More

Pending home sales, Richmond Fed, Holiday retail sales

Bad: Highlights Existing home sales have been leveling but the signal from pending home sales points to a new downturn. The pending home sales index for November fell 0.7 percent to 101.4 which is under Econoday’s consensus range and compared to expectations for a 1.5 percent gain. Year-on-year this index is down ...Read More

Rail traffic, apartment vacancy rate, durable goods orders, personal income and consumption, KC manufacturing

Rail Week Ending 15 December 2018: Economically Intuitive Sectors Continue In Contraction Written by Steven Hansen Week 50 of 2018 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) improved according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data. The economically intuitive sectors were in contraction this week. ...Read More

Leveraged loans, Current account and repatriation, Cass freight index

So for every agent that spent less than its income, another must have spent more than its income, or the output would not have been sold. It’s an ex poste identity for any currency. That means that as bank lending decelerated, assuming ‘savings desires’ are generally constant, either some other means of ...Read More

Housing starts, Existing home sales, Fedex

Up some but the chart not looking so good: Highlights Mostly goods news finally greets the housing sector as both starts and permits are showing an uplift in November results that top Econoday’s consensus range. Starts jumped to a 1.256 million annualized rate for a 4-month high with permits at a 1.328 ...Read More

Containers, Housing index and sales

Analyst Opinion of Container Movements Simply looking at this month versus last month – this was a terrible month. The three month rolling averages significantly declined. This is the first dataset I have seen which could be a self-inflicted wound from the trade wars. The three month rolling average for exports is ...Read More